Global oil market faces surplus in 2019 as demand growth slows

Representatives from here major oil producers met in Abu Dhabi at the weekend

Representatives from here major oil producers met in Abu Dhabi at the weekend

What has been made apparent by OPEC and the IEA is that oil demand growth is slowing, while oil supply, most notably from the USA is rising to record levels at a rapid rate.

USA crude futures lost $3.59, or 6 per cent, to hit $56.35 a barrel, lowest since December 2017, as of 1:45 p.m. EST (1845 GMT), putting it on track for its largest one-day percentage loss since January 2016.

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih had already said on Monday that Opec had agreed there was a need to cut oil production next year to prevent oversupply.

The comments from the minister, Khalid al-Falih, show the balancing act the USA allies face in dealing with President Donald Trump's actions related to the oil industry.

Brent Crude has now fallen over 25% since hitting a four-year high in early October, while USA oil has lost 28% since its October peak.


The producer cartel of the Opec has been watching the jump in supply and price slump with concern.

Since early October, oil prices have lost around a quarter of their value as supply soars just as demand is expected to slow down along with an economic downturn. Brent crude, used to price worldwide oils, dropped to $65.17 a barrel.

A total cut was estimated at total of 1.8 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC states pledged to jointly reduce oil output by 558,000 barrels per day, with Russian Federation pledging to cut production by 300,000 barrels.

Why are oil prices falling?

Brent prices rose 0.6 per cent on Wednesday to $65.86 at 1115 GMT (6:13 a.m. EST).

Oil markets are being pressured from two sides: a surge in supply and increasing concerns about an economic slowdown, as seen with the economic contractions in powerhouses Japan and Germany during the third quarter as well as in China's falling auto sales.


USA officials have already said the sanctions would be meant to bring down Iran's oil exports to zero.

The dollar also put pressure on oil, hovering near 16-month highs, making crude more expensive for importers using other currencies.

The group meets on December 6 to set policy for 2019.

"The situation as it is now, at around $70 (per barrel), suits us completely", Putin said at a summit in Singapore.

He said emerging concerns about weak global demand, rising USA production, and speculators rapidly bailing out of long positions were primary factors for the drop.

U.S. crude stocks climbed by 7.8-million barrels in the week ending November 2 to 432-million as refineries cut output, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed on Tuesday.


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